Saturday, December 19, 2009, 7:20PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

"Still a Very Shaky Sort of World Recovery," FT's Martin Wolf Says

Posted Oct 30, 2009 10:00am EDT by Heesun Wee in Investing, Recession, Banking

America's economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter and stocks surged yesterday on the better-than-expected news. The IMF also raised its forecasts for Asia to 2.8% growth this year, 5.8% in 2010. 

It's hard not to feel better about the recovery, given those headlines. But the question on all our minds: Does this recovery have staying power?

"It's beginning to look like the old cycle," says our guest Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator for The Financial Times. "U.S. consumers go out and spend like crazy. Probably the current account deficits start rising again. ...The Asians wait for their exports to recover. And that in my mind would be an incredibly unsatisfactory sort of recovery that would just generate difficulties down the road."

However, what may be different this time is the consumer. "It's very difficult to believe in a really strong consumer-led recovery in the U.S.," Martin tells Aaron and Henry.  "I think this is still a very shaky sort of world recovery."

Some other key issues of note:

  • The stock market. The market has done a "not unreasonable job" of anticipating the recovery, thus indicating this is probably not another bubble in the making.
  • U.S. versus the world: Looking beyond America, our recession was actually smaller than other countries, Wolf notes. Why? The U.S. doesn't make a lot of durable goods anymore with the exception of cars. Plus, we exported a lot of our toxic assets to foreign financial institutions.
  • Emerging economies. Countries such as China haven't been decimated and in fact are recovering more quickly than the U.S. China, in particular, is feeling the benefits of a massive stimulus program -- the bulk of it aimed at infrastructure spending. Wolf suspects China has about three to four more years on this path before it faces tough choices related to turning the nation's savers into spenders, and thus rebalancing it's export-driven economy. 

 

83 Comments

Michael
Michael - Friday October 30, 2009 10:07AM EDT

The rules of score keeping continue to change and I don't believe any of the "spin". Oh yeah...think positively. Positive it is a lot of Bull.

Helga
Helga - Friday October 30, 2009 10:08AM EDT

Helga feel shaky most of the time; I can't sleep at night; my mattress stinks and my 401k is gone,..,gone! Helga is getting angry. The bankers are getting rich rich rich. Helga need better job.

Helga
Helga - Friday October 30, 2009 10:10AM EDT

An Israeli doctor says, 'Medicine in my country is so advanced that we can take a kidney out of one man, put it in another, and have him looking for work in six weeks.' A German doctor says, 'That is nothing; we can take a lung out of one person, put it in another, and have him looking for work in four weeks.' A Russian doctor says, 'In my country, medicine is so advanced that we can take half of a heart out of one person, put it in another, and have them both looking for work in two weeks.' An ILLINOIS doctor, not to be outdone, says, 'you guys are way behind. We recently took a man with no brains out of ILLINOIS , put him in the White House for SIX MONTHS, and now half the COUNTRY is looking for work.

Tex
Tex - Friday October 30, 2009 10:11AM EDT

The interesting thing about this guy is that he has a world view. The U.S. is not in all that bad of shape compared to other countries. We don't want a consumer led recovery; we need a savings/investment led recovery. We are on course to recover, generate industrial production and get our unemployment rate back to normal.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 10:24AM EDT

The only way to provide jobs is if executives are paid less, thereby freeing a portion of company profits to pay more workers. Any idiot can figure that out. American jobs were sent overseas for a reason, and corporate America will do everything in their power to resist creating new jobs for that SAME reason. It’s ALL supposed to go to the executives.

excuse
excuse - Friday October 30, 2009 10:28AM EDT

Suckers just keep on getting sucked dry. Find some pretext for saying, "BUY" just as "job losses have slowed down" - get the suckers excited, buy a bunch of stuff and get the suckers to think they are in on a good thing then "Sell, Baby SELL". Every week it is the same old thing - only the suckers are running dry. All the crap about cycles is just BS. The only cycle is the manipulation of the suckers.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 10:32AM EDT

You can tell Aaron and Henry are cracking up over Martin's accent. I bet he was a good sport about it though. Nice interview.

Xong Xie
Xong Xie - Friday October 30, 2009 10:54AM EDT

The red giant has true economy. Americans engage in a false economy ridden with fraud.

sensey
sensey - Friday October 30, 2009 10:56AM EDT

"The IMF also raised its forecasts for Asia to 2.8% growth this year, 5.8% in 2010. ... Martin Wolf: "U.S. consumers go out and spend like crazy. Probably the current account deficits start rising again. ...The Asians wait for their exports to recover. And that in my mind would be an incredibly unsatisfactory sort of recovery that would just generate difficulties down the road." ///////////// ///////////// I am inclined to agree with this. They want to reinflate the bubble so they can put their people back to work making goods to be sold at Target and Wal-Mart. It keeps the heat off of regimes like Gloria's in the Philippines, and the Malaysians, Indonesians, and Vietnamese, and of course, China. Will this be good for the world at this time? Probably not, because the old imbalances will remain: over-large US current account and fiscal deficits and Asian economies propping it all up with a too-large position in US Treasuries. Something needs to break the logjam.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 10:57AM EDT

Xong Xie - Friday October 30, 2009 10:35AM EDT - Americans are to lazy and there only jobs should be digging holes and watching tv. The red giant shall crush the lazy tv watching americans. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BACK OFF, pal. Americans can out-produce you emaciated, brainwashed SLAVES any day of the week. Take your superior attitude and SHOVE IT!

wes C
wes C - Friday October 30, 2009 11:03AM EDT

The Federal Reserve Bank is a private Corporation run by private individuals to make a profit. They control this country. Look up the Money Masters, Bohemian Grove, Trilateral Commission, federal Treade Commission, WTO. All ran by and contrllled by the same people. They control the media, They got Obama into the Presidency as they have the others since 1920s or 1930s. They control the recessions, depressions, transgressions of the United States. The Federal Reserve makes our money and charges the government to do thaT.

MGA_1
MGA_1 - Friday October 30, 2009 11:05AM EDT

I hate to say this, but I think we are now in for the second round of this downturn. First was companies laying off to tighten up on profits, next will be a drop in revenues as out of work people stop spending and additional downturn in business output. Govt stimulus, IMO, is kicking the can down the street and forestalling a true recovery. True recovery will happen *only* when the bad debt has been squeezed out of the system and US can get back to the basic of manufacturing.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 11:06AM EDT

www.originalturtletrader.com also appears to be shaky....probably because no one is buying into their scam

Terry
Terry - Friday October 30, 2009 11:08AM EDT

First of all the GDP increase is all about the Cash for Clunkers and $8,000 home buyers stimulus money that will be additional tax to the taxpayers in the coming years. If you deduct the $8k times the number of homes sold with it and deduct the $3,500 to $4,500 times the number of cars/trucks sold with it the GDP would negative. So this is a huge government scam to pacify the auto unions and the National Realtor Assn lobby in DC. As far as jobs are concerned the government seems to confuse job retention with adding jobs. They have been retaining and adding mostly government jobs. A totally none productive strategy. People take back your country... No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday October 30, 2009 11:24AM EDT

Terry, you have to understand the people you are dealing with in this country. They choose to be herded in a direction and are risk aversive. This excludes them from any form of responsibility and permits them to complain while doing nothing to help their situation.

san
san - Friday October 30, 2009 11:32AM EDT

There is no growth in the market it's just inflation. You pour more dollars in it chases the same ammount of assets and so the price goes up. US Government is really stealing from the savers and anyone who was prudent. Stand up for your rights there are 8 savers to every 1 borrower!

Dennybro
Dennybro - Friday October 30, 2009 11:35AM EDT

The stock market SHOULD worry. We're dropping like flys out here!! My house is gone- many of my freinds are on the edge-the banks act like they could care less-why should they worry. They get your house ,set on it, and make BIG BUCKS when the market does come back-Uncle will bail them out anyway. If I was a buisness person I wouldn't be depending on Christmas to make a wad, cause it ain't gonna happen!

sensey
sensey - Friday October 30, 2009 11:37AM EDT

Please Mr/Ms Xie ... you own nothing. As Donald Trump likes to say, "if I owe you $10K, I have a problem, but if I owe you $10B, YOU have a problem" ... in other words, China is roped to US success whether they like it or they don't like it. And how, pray tell, might they hope to "collect" when the US Navy pretty much rules the seas and we also have the high ground of space. We are, in fact, allies of a sort.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 11:41AM EDT

THE RECOVERY IS BOGUS! SELL! PANIC! Every single article on Yahoo's Tech Ticker blog has the same message. It's all negative. Regardless of what the real conditions are, it’s impossible to take seriously any of the relentlessly negative blather appearing under the Tech Ticker banner.

monk man
monk man - Friday October 30, 2009 11:48AM EDT

No Jobs No Hope No Peace No Rest The ghost of Tom Jones says it all Revolution Calling

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